Understand the ideas behind the headline.

Technological change needs human judgement

AI, automation and robotics can make people more capable—but using them well still calls for judgement.

AI can generate content and analyse information; AI agents can carry out sequences of tasks; robotics brings automation into the physical world. Their usefulness depends on the task, the quality of information and the safeguards around them.

These technologies may increase productivity and reduce repetitive work, while also displacing tasks, intensifying competition and changing which skills are valuable. Adoption, costs and real-world limitations matter as much as technical capability.

The useful question isn’t simply whether a technology is impressive. It’s where it creates practical value, what risks or errors need human oversight and how people can adapt. Understanding those questions is part of understanding a changing economy—not a reason to assume any particular investment will succeed.

Cognitive bias and investing

One of the biggest risks in investing is making decisions through cognitive biases without realising it.

Familiarity can make property feel safer because it’s tangible. Cash can create a similar illusion because its nominal value moves very little—even while inflation reduces purchasing power.

Loss aversion, confirmation bias, anchoring, recency and herd behaviour also shape decisions. The useful question isn’t simply what feels safest, but what offers the best combination of security, flexibility, wealth protection and compounding.

Currency spreads and the hidden cost of moving money

Every currency conversion can include a hidden cost called the spread.

The spread is the difference between the market exchange rate and the rate received from a bank, exchange house or payment provider.

Repeatedly moving money can consume capital through spreads, fees, inflation and opportunity cost. The deeper question is what you own with your capital and whether it can protect and increase purchasing power.

Fiscal dominance and monetary dominance

A change in interest rates matters—but the reason for the change matters more.

Monetary dominance means the central bank prioritises inflation and stability, even when higher rates increase financing costs. Fiscal dominance describes government financing needs exerting greater influence over monetary policy.

A cut after inflation falls may be normal policy. A cut despite persistent inflation because public financing has become costly would look more like fiscal dominance.

International structure starts with the right questions

A foreign company or bank account doesn’t by itself determine tax obligations.

Tax residence, physical work location, income source, invoicing entity, clients, assets and reporting obligations must be separated.

A foreign entity can have commercial or organisational value, but shouldn’t be assumed to remove personal obligations where someone lives and works.

The dollar, stablecoins and new financial rails

Sovereign de-dollarisation can coexist with wider use of digital dollars by businesses and individuals.

Payment stablecoins use reserves that may include cash, deposits, short-term US Treasuries and certain Treasury-backed repo arrangements, potentially creating demand for government debt while expanding digital dollar access.

At the same time, CIPS and mBridge represent active alternatives for renminbi and central-bank digital-currency settlement. The transition is toward more routes, digitalisation and options—not necessarily immediate dollar collapse.